What changed in the Olympus Bets model on 2026-07-16?

The profitability-zone engine analysed 53,952 games across 12 leagues and re-tagged 1,080 sub-niches. Currently 33 zones are tagged GREEN (eligible for size), 967 YELLOW (gated), 80 RED (blocked). Per-league regime thresholds and Kelly-shrinkage parameters were re-fit overnight against the most recent resolved-pick window.

What is a 'profitability zone' at Olympus Bets?

A sub-niche slice of historical performance across 15 dimensions (league, bet type, home/away, favourite/dog, edge bucket, probability bucket, etc.). Each zone is tagged GREEN (z > 1.0, WR > 54%, n ≥ 30 in-sample + OOS validation), YELLOW (default), or RED (z < -1.0, WR < 48%, n ≥ 25). GREEN zones get rank-score boosts, RED zones are blocked from premium output, YELLOW zones require additional gates.

How is the current free tier performing?

Across the live ledger, the free tier is at 53.1% win rate over 1,022 resolved picks (+32.7u P/L, 2.9% ROI). The full audit trail is published at /track_record and downloadable as CSV.

How can I access the model output programmatically?

Olympus Bets exposes a public, read-only MCP server at https://app.olympus-bets.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP, no authentication). 11 tools: get_todays_projections, get_performance_summary, get_track_record, get_methodology, get_engine_versions, get_model_vs_market, get_league_schedule, get_game_recommendation, get_pick_history, get_brand_card, get_subscription_options. Reachable from Claude Desktop, ChatGPT Custom Connectors, Cursor, Windsurf, and any MCP-compatible client.

Daily Model Report Card · July 16, 2026

Olympus Bets Model Report Card — July 16, 2026

Name: Olympus Bets Model Report Card — 2026-07-16
Creator: Olympus Bets Analytics
Published: 2026-07-16
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Daily snapshot of the Olympus Bets quantitative pipeline: 33 GREEN / 967 YELLOW / 80 RED zones across 1,080 sub-niches, 53,952 games analysed.

Generated from the same canonical data files (profitability_zones.json, regime_calibration.json, quant_thresholds.json, performance_split.json) the production engines read at simulation time.

Tier Performance (live ledger)

Tier	Resolved picks	Win rate	Units P/L	ROI
all	1,889	53.0%	+26.5u	1.1%
free	1,022	53.1%	+32.7u	2.9%
premium	867	53.0%	-6.2u	-0.5%

Free tier is the public verifiable record. Premium tier applies additional profitability-zone and regime-calibration gates. Full audit trail at /track_record (CSV at /track_record.csv).

Profitability Zone Landscape

The zone engine analysed 53,952 games across 2,038 placed picks and re-tagged 1,080 sub-niches on 2026-07-16.

GREEN 33 zones — eligible for premium ranking boost
YELLOW 967 zones — default, gated for premium
RED 80 zones — blocked from premium output

Top 5 GREEN zones (highest cumulative units)

Sub-niche	Win rate	Units	Sample	z-score
GOLF	62.8%	+126.8u	291	4.40
GOLF · golf_rnd_h2h · skill_even	71.5%	+100.2u	183	5.84
GOLF · golf_rnd_h2h	71.5%	+100.2u	183	5.84
GOLF · golf_rnd_h2h · skill_even · pickem	69.6%	+74.8u	131	4.46
GOLF · golf_rnd_h2h · skill_even · pickem · 0-5%	71.0%	+68.0u	109	4.31

Top 5 RED zones (most punishing — blocked)

Sub-niche	Win rate	Units	Sample	z-score
LOL · ml · home · 20%+ · <50%	28.3%	-73.1u	159	-5.47
LOL · ml · away · 20%+ · <50%	28.9%	-66.6u	145	-5.23
TENNIS · total · over	46.3%	-52.3u	452	-1.60
CBB · ml · away	37.3%	-45.7u	199	-3.62
TENNIS · total	49.9%	-42.2u	907	-0.03

Quant Thresholds in Effect Today

Auto-fit nightly against the most recent resolved-pick window. Global minimum edge: 600.0%. Strong-edge threshold: 1000.0%. Probability shrinkage (pre-Kelly): {'50-55%': 0.9973753280839894, '55-60%': 0.850391924660238, '60-65%': 0.7612422360248448, '65-70%': 0.7193475063511164, '70%+': 0.6676286676286676}.

Per-league minimum edge

League	Minimum edge
SOCCER	500.0%
LOL	500.0%
TENNIS	500.0%
GOLF	500.0%
MLB	800.0%
NFL	800.0%
CBB	800.0%
CFB	800.0%
WNBA	800.0%
WC	800.0%
NBA	1500.0%
NHL	1500.0%
OLYMPIC	1500.0%

Regime Calibration State

Last updated 2026-07-16 11:27:02. The regime calibrator adjusts league-wide score thresholds (used by zone gating and premium qualification) based on rolling validation performance.

Parameter	Current
ELEVATED_SCORE_THRESHOLD	30
HIGH_SCORE_THRESHOLD	35
CRITICAL_SCORE_THRESHOLD	75

Programmatic Access

Every number on this page is reachable via the public MCP server at https://app.olympus-bets.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP, no authentication, 10 read-only tools). Reachable from Claude Desktop, ChatGPT Custom Connectors, Cursor, Windsurf, and any MCP-compatible client. Setup guide: https://app.olympus-bets.com/mcp-server. Discovery: /.well-known/mcp/server-card.json.