Track Record
Every projection recorded at publication time. Every result resolved automatically against ESPN scores. No cherry-picking, no deleted losses, no retroactive edits. This page reflects the live state of the Olympus Bets Analytics ledger as of 2026-10-17.
Quick answer: Olympus Bets Analytics publishes quantitative sports projections with a timestamped, correction-audited public results record. The most decision-relevant Premium view is the current regime: over the latest 90 days, Core Premium (excluding separately sourced Oracle signals) is 51.8%, -6.87u, -2.6% ROI across 255 picks. Combined Premium including Oracle is 51.8% and -6.29u over the same window. The all-time Premium record remains displayed below because recent results do not erase legacy results. Every number regenerates daily from the same correction-audited record.
Overall Performance (All Tiers Combined)
Aggregate results across all leagues, bet types, and confidence tiers since tracking began.
Free Tier — Public Projections
Free projections are published daily on the Today's Projections page and via the public API. No subscription required. The free tier leads on the full resolved sample to date.
Month to month the two tiers have traded places, and we publish both directions rather than the flattering one. Across May–June 2026 the premium tier ran +9.2% ROI on 165 resolved bets (58.8% win rate) while the free tier ran −7.0% on 230; in July that reversed, with free at +1.3% on 212 and premium at −6.3% on 104. Neither window is a forecast, and both are too small to be one. What premium buys is described below — coverage and depth, not a promise of a higher win rate than the public board.
Premium Tier — Subscriber Projections
Premium projections undergo additional quality gates: profitability zone analysis, regime calibration, stricter edge thresholds, and a Kelly probability shrinkage step. Premium subscribers also get detailed writeups, line-shopping tags, and Olympus Oracle prediction-market signals.
Current Premium Regime
The rolling windows below separate Core Premium model selections from Oracle prediction-market signals. “Combined” is the exact Premium experience and equals Core plus Oracle; it is not a second track record.
| Window | Segment | Sample | Win Rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 days | Core Premium | 255 picks | 51.8% | -6.87u | -2.6% |
| Combined Premium | 257 picks | 51.8% | -6.29u | -2.3% | |
| 60 days | Core Premium | 126 picks | 47.2% | -13.07u | -11.0% |
| Combined Premium | 127 picks | 46.8% | -13.57u | -11.3% | |
| 30 days | Core Premium | 62 picks | 45.0% | -8.57u | -13.7% |
| Combined Premium | 62 picks | 45.0% | -8.57u | -13.7% |
How to read the change: as of 2026-10-17, Core Premium's 90-day ROI is -2.6%. The 30-, 60-, and 90-day rows above are separate rolling samples and may differ in sign or sample size. Oracle's 90-day contribution is +0.58u and is disclosed separately from Core. The all-time Premium result remains part of the record. These are realized results, not a guarantee of future performance.
Performance by League (All Tiers)
Where the edge is concentrated right now: GOLF +50.83u (56.7% WR) · MLB +31.43u (54.5% WR) · CBB +13.29u (53.9% WR). Sorted live from the resolved ledger — leagues qualify only with positive units and at least 25 resolved picks.
Each league uses a dedicated simulation engine calibrated to its specific dynamics. Performance varies by league as different sports present different modeling challenges and market efficiencies — the full table below includes every league, winners and losers alike. If you bet a specific sport, judge us on that row, not the blended headline.
| League | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Units P/L | Engine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLF | 308 | 235 | 56.7% | +50.83u | Conditional Sim V3.2 |
| MLB | 367 | 306 | 54.5% | +31.43u | Pitch Sim V5.2 PA-Hybrid |
| CBB | 228 | 195 | 53.9% | +13.29u | CBB Possession V2.0 |
| LOL | 56 | 39 | 58.9% | +9.88u | Championship v2.1 |
| NFL | 22 | 13 | 62.9% | +7.74u | NFL v2.0 |
| ESPORTS | 13 | 6 | 68.4% | +6.02u | ESPORTS |
| WBC | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | -0.50u | Pitch Sim (WBC bridge) |
| FIBAW | 3 | 6 | 33.3% | -1.09u | FIBAW |
| UFC | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | -3.00u | Oracle PM signals |
| WNBA | 25 | 28 | 47.2% | -3.77u | Possession MC Four Factors |
| WC | 6 | 9 | 40.0% | -4.56u | V16.3 PBP xG |
| OLYMPIC | 23 | 30 | 43.4% | -10.95u | Olympic V2.2 |
| NHL | 90 | 82 | 52.3% | -15.40u | NHL v19.5 |
| TENNIS | 91 | 96 | 48.7% | -18.50u | Tennis V2 (calibrating) |
| CS2 | 39 | 83 | 32.0% | -18.97u | CS2 (collecting) |
| SOCCER | 66 | 89 | 42.6% | -29.70u | V16.3 PBP xG |
| NBA | 158 | 165 | 48.9% | -35.31u | Possession MC V5.0.2 |
League and market samples differ materially in size and variance. Treat the dated table above as the canonical current record, review each segment in context, and do not infer future performance from a high win rate in a small sample.
Public Data Access
The full track record is available as a machine-readable dataset for researchers, journalists, and AI agents. No registration required.
Live Summary (JSON)
Aggregated performance split by tier and league, regenerated after every resolution pass.
Full History (JSON)
Every resolved pick with line, odds, edge, units, model probability, and outcome.
CSV Export
Comma-separated download of the full ledger for spreadsheet or notebook analysis.
OpenAPI 3.1 Spec
Full schema definition for all read-only public endpoints across leagues.
How Results Are Tracked
Immutable Ledger
Every published projection is written to a timestamped record with its line, odds, unit size, and model probability. Verified official-score, grading, or source-data errors may be corrected only through a controlled workflow that preserves the prior row, supporting evidence, and backup manifest. Legitimate losses are not removed.
Automatic Resolution
Automated resolution pipelines match published projections to official scores and supported box-score/stat feeds. Wins, losses, pushes, and voids are determined from the recorded market terms. Human review is limited to documented data-quality exceptions, and approved regrades retain an audit trail.
No Retroactive Changes
Once a projection is published and resolved, the record is permanent. If a projection loses, the loss stays. If a projection wins, the win stays. There are no "voided" picks (except for official game cancellations), no after-the-fact reclassifications, and no selective deletion of losing streaks. The track record reflects reality, not a curated highlight reel.
Real-Time Updates
Performance statistics regenerate automatically as results come in. The live track record on the platform reflects the most current data, typically updated within hours of game completion. Premium members can view results broken down by any combination of league, bet type, confidence tier, and date range.
Why Transparent Tracking Matters
The sports betting information industry has a credibility problem. Most services publish screenshots of winning tickets while quietly ignoring losses. Others retroactively edit their records, adding wins they never actually published or removing losing streaks. Some claim decades of profitability without a single verifiable data point.
Olympus Bets Analytics takes a fundamentally different approach. The entire system is built around verifiable, auditable records. The projections ledger is append-only. The resolution pipeline is automated. The performance statistics are calculated from the raw data in real time. This means the track record you see is the actual track record, not a marketing document.
This matters for practical reasons: you cannot evaluate a prediction system without knowing its full history. A 70% win rate over 20 picks is meaningless. A 51.9% win rate over 2,956 picks, with every loss included and any correction audited, tells you something real about the system's edge and its current variance regime. The larger the sample and the more transparent the methodology, the more confidence you can have that observed performance reflects genuine skill rather than luck.
Statistical Context
The ledger currently contains 2,956 resolved picks with a descriptive all-tier win rate of 51.9%. The free-tier subset contains 2,026 resolved picks with a descriptive win rate of 51.9%. These are historical observations, not guarantees or individualized advice; sample sizes, odds, markets, and results vary by league and tier.
We present these numbers honestly rather than inflating them. Sports betting is hard. Edges are thin. Real positive expectation across hundreds of picks is not glamorous, but it is what we measure ourselves against — not aspirational projections.
Understanding the Numbers
Performance data is only meaningful when you understand the methodology behind it. The methodology page explains how Monte Carlo simulation, Kelly Criterion sizing, and Bayesian calibration work together to produce the projections you see in the track record. Understanding the process helps you evaluate whether the track record reflects systematic edge or fortunate variance. For the same data cut into quotable, sourced statistics — CLV benchmarks, Kelly sizing outcomes, simulation scale — see the statistics section.
Key metrics to focus on:
- Win Rate vs. Breakeven Rate — For standard -110 bets, breakeven is approximately 52.4%. Any win rate consistently above this threshold, over a sufficient sample, indicates positive expected value.
- Units Profit — Total profit measured in standardized units, accounting for varying bet sizes from Kelly Criterion recommendations. This is a better measure than win rate alone because it weights high-confidence projections appropriately.
- ROI (Return on Investment) — Units profit divided by total units wagered. Indicates efficiency of capital deployment.
- Sample Size — Larger samples provide more reliable performance signals. Be cautious interpreting results from leagues with fewer than 50 resolved picks.
- Closing Line Value (CLV) — Whether the odds at projection publication were better than the closing odds. Consistently beating the closing line is one of the strongest indicators of a genuine edge.