Track Record
Every pick recorded. Every result tracked. No cherry-picking, no deleted losses, no retroactive edits. This is the complete, verified performance history of the Olympus Bets analytics platform.
Overall Performance
Aggregate results across all leagues, bet types, and confidence tiers since tracking began.
Premium Tier Performance
Premium picks undergo additional quality gates: profitability zone analysis, regime calibration, and stricter edge thresholds. These filters are designed to surface only the highest-conviction recommendations.
Performance by League
Each league uses a dedicated simulation engine calibrated to its specific dynamics. Performance varies by league as different sports present different modeling challenges and market efficiencies.
| League | Win Rate | Picks | Units P/L | Engine |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBB | 56.4% | 275 | +28.47u | Savant Ultra v5.0 |
| NBA | 52.0% | 148 | +3.21u | Possession MC V5.0.2 |
| NHL | 51.8% | 112 | +1.85u | V19.1 Pinnacle |
| NFL | 64.7% | 17 | +10.74u | Elite V1.1 Pinnacle |
| Soccer | 50.6% | 82 | -4.33u | V16.1 PBP xG |
Note: Smaller sample sizes (NFL with 17 picks) carry higher variance. The NFL's 64.7% win rate is strong but the sample is too small for statistical significance. CBB's 275-pick sample provides the most reliable performance signal. Soccer's three-way market (where a draw counts as a loss for moneyline bets) makes it structurally harder to profit, which the profitability zone system now accounts for by blocking underperforming sub-niches.
How We Track Results
Immutable Ledger
Every pick is written to a timestamped, append-only ledger at the moment of publication. The line, odds, unit size, and model probability are all recorded. This file is never edited retroactively. You can audit the raw data to verify that no picks have been added, removed, or modified after the fact.
Automatic Resolution
A daily resolution pipeline runs each morning, matching published picks to official game results from ESPN. Wins, losses, and pushes are determined programmatically using the recorded line and the final score. There is no manual intervention in the resolution process, eliminating any possibility of selective reporting.
No Retroactive Changes
Once a pick is published and resolved, the record is permanent. If a pick loses, the loss stays. If a pick wins, the win stays. There are no "voided" picks (except for official game cancellations), no after-the-fact reclassifications, and no selective deletion of losing streaks. The track record reflects reality, not a curated highlight reel.
Real-Time Updates
Performance statistics update automatically as results come in. The live track record on the platform reflects the most current data, typically updated within hours of game completion. Premium members can view results broken down by any combination of league, bet type, confidence tier, and date range.
Why Transparent Tracking Matters
The sports betting information industry has a credibility problem. Most services publish screenshots of winning tickets while quietly ignoring losses. Others retroactively edit their records, adding wins they never actually published or removing losing streaks. Some claim decades of profitability without a single verifiable data point.
Olympus Bets takes a fundamentally different approach. The entire system is built around verifiable, auditable records. The picks ledger is append-only. The resolution pipeline is automated. The performance statistics are calculated from the raw data in real time. This means the track record you see is the actual track record, not a marketing document.
This matters for practical reasons: you cannot evaluate a prediction system without knowing its full history. A 70% win rate over 20 picks is meaningless. A 54% win rate over 634 picks, tracked immutably with every loss included, tells you something real about the system's edge. The larger the sample and the more transparent the methodology, the more confidence you can have that observed performance reflects genuine skill rather than luck.
Statistical Context
At 634 resolved picks with a 52.6% overall win rate (against a roughly 52.4% breakeven rate for standard -110 spread bets), the sample is approaching but has not yet reached conventional statistical significance thresholds for the overall number. However, the premium tier at 54.8% across 189 picks shows a stronger signal. The CBB subsample of 275 picks at 56.4% is the most statistically robust segment. As the sample grows, the signal-to-noise ratio will continue to improve.
We present these numbers honestly rather than inflating them. Sports betting is hard. Edges are thin. A 54.8% win rate on the premium tier is not glamorous, but it is profitable, sustainable, and — critically — real.
Understanding the Numbers
Performance data is only meaningful when you understand the methodology behind it. The methodology page explains how Monte Carlo simulation, Kelly Criterion sizing, and Bayesian calibration work together to produce the predictions you see in the track record. Understanding the process helps you evaluate whether the track record reflects systematic edge or fortunate variance.
Key metrics to focus on:
- Win Rate vs. Breakeven Rate — For standard -110 bets, breakeven is approximately 52.4%. Any win rate consistently above this threshold, over a sufficient sample, indicates positive expected value.
- Units Profit — Total profit measured in standardized units, accounting for varying bet sizes from Kelly Criterion recommendations. This is a better measure than win rate alone because it weights high-confidence picks appropriately.
- ROI (Return on Investment) — Units profit divided by total units wagered. Indicates efficiency of capital deployment.
- Sample Size — Larger samples provide more reliable performance signals. Be cautious interpreting results from leagues with fewer than 50 resolved picks.
- Closing Line Value (CLV) — Whether the odds at pick publication were better than the closing odds. Consistently beating the closing line is one of the strongest indicators of a genuine edge.