7 purpose-built Monte Carlo simulation engines, each calibrated for its league's specific dynamics. 10,000+ iterations per game with Kelly Criterion sizing and Bayesian calibration.
Each league uses a dedicated engine tuned to its specific data sources, scoring dynamics, and betting markets.
Possession-by-possession simulation with Beta shooting distributions, score-state dynamics, and 13-player roster modeling. Each game plays out ~200 possessions per simulation across 10,000 iterations.
5-on-5 player-level simulation using EvanMiya BPR ratings, adaptive ATS regime thresholds, and matchup variance modeling across 350+ Division I teams.
MoneyPuck expected goals (xG) integration with real danger zone data, per-zone goalie modeling, and Bayesian shrinkage for shot quality-weighted simulation.
EPA-driven drive-level simulation with CDF edge calculation, weekly automated roster updates, and play-by-play modeling calibrated to current season data.
FBref xG-calibrated play-by-play simulation with isotonic calibration, formation analysis, 3-way moneyline support, and Both Teams To Score (BTTS) modeling.
Statcast-powered count-state simulation with pitcher-batter matchup modeling, catcher framing adjustments, bullpen fatigue tracking, and park factor normalization.
5-layer Glicko-2 rating system with market blend, staleness regression, and patch-aware meta analysis across LCK, LPL, LEC, LCS, and international events.
Every engine shares the same calibration, sizing, and quality control systems.
Optimal bet sizing calculated from the edge magnitude and implied probability. League-specific caps prevent overexposure in volatile markets.
Raw model probabilities are calibrated against thousands of historical outcomes using isotonic regression and Bayesian shrinkage to correct for overconfidence.
15-dimension sub-niche analysis identifies which specific bet types, leagues, and market conditions are currently producing edge and which have gone cold.
Every pick is recorded at publication time. Results are resolved automatically. Full history available on the track record page.