Free Sports Betting Projections Explained
How to read Olympus free projections: what the model publishes, what is gated, and how to turn a probability into a stake.
Open today's free board Browse game predictions
What “free projections” means here
Olympus runs Monte Carlo simulation engines across major leagues (MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, soccer, tennis, golf, esports, and more). Free does not mean “fake” or “delayed scrapes.” It means:
- The same engines that power premium produce the probabilities.
- A curated free board publishes verifiable picks before games start.
- Results resolve automatically and feed the public track record and CSV dataset (CC-BY-4.0).
- Premium is the full research layer per game — every edge, writeups, Oracle intelligence, props, parlays — not a different model.
Where to find them
| Surface | What you get | URL |
|---|---|---|
| Free board | Curated free picks with tiers and unit sizes | /todays_best_bets |
| Prediction pages | Per-game Monte Carlo pages (projected score, win prob; edge/pick gated when premium) | /predictions/ |
| Sport model hubs | Engine version, method, league context | /sports/ |
| Track record | Resolved free/premium performance, regenerates daily | /track_record |
| MCP / API | Machine-readable free projections for agents | /mcp-server |
How to read a free pick card
- League + market — e.g. MLB moneyline, NHL total. Stick to markets you understand.
- Model probability — Monte Carlo output after calibration (see Bayesian calibration).
- Market price — the line/odds at publish time. Compare with the odds converter.
- Edge / EV framing — when shown free, this is model vs market; when locked, it is premium.
- Units — fractional Kelly with league caps (recreate in the Kelly calculator).
Free vs premium (honest split)
On non-premium games for non-members, Olympus keeps free: projected score/total, win probability, market lines, quality context, and public form/injury notes. Masked: model-vs-market edge, recommended pick side, and unit sizing on those cards. Premium best-bet games are fully gated. The free board is a deliberate public teaser with published history — not a dark funnel.
Compare products: Olympus vs other tools. Full method: methodology.
Workflow: free projection → stake
- Open today's free board or a game page.
- Confirm the market price still exists at your book (lines move).
- Optional: check EV with the EV calculator using your own probability if you disagree with the model.
- Size with fractional Kelly; never full Kelly on uncertain estimates.
- After the close, grade process with the CLV calculator.
FAQ
Are free projections real model output?
Yes — same engines as premium. Free is a curated, publicly tracked subset plus free-readable projection fields on game pages.
Where are today's free sports betting projections?
Today's Best Bets and /predictions/.
How are free picks sized?
Fractional Kelly after Bayesian shrinkage and league caps. Details in the Kelly guide.
Does free include every simulated game?
No. The slate is simulated broadly; free picks are quality-gated. Prediction pages cover many more matchups for research.