What changed in the Olympus Bets model on 2026-09-30?

The profitability-zone engine analysed 145,284 games across 12 leagues and re-tagged 1,139 sub-niches. Currently 17 zones are tagged GREEN (eligible for size), 1078 YELLOW (gated), 44 RED (blocked). Per-league regime thresholds and Kelly-shrinkage parameters were re-fit overnight against the most recent resolved-pick window.

What is a 'profitability zone' at Olympus Bets?

A sub-niche slice of historical performance across 15 dimensions (league, bet type, home/away, favourite/dog, edge bucket, probability bucket, etc.). Each zone is tagged GREEN (z > 1.0, WR > 54%, n ≥ 30 in-sample + OOS validation), YELLOW (default), or RED (z < -1.0, WR < 48%, n ≥ 25). GREEN zones get rank-score boosts, RED zones are blocked from premium output, YELLOW zones require additional gates.

How is the model performing on the live ledger?

Across the combined live ledger, the model is at 51.8% win rate over 2,881 resolved picks (-31.4u P/L, -1.0% ROI). The full audit trail is published at /track_record and downloadable as CSV.

How can I access the model output programmatically?

Olympus Bets exposes a read-only MCP server at https://app.olympus-bets.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP) with 23 tools: 6 discovery tools require no authentication, 9 data tools require a free email-minted API key (app.olympus-bets.com/mcp/free-key), and 8 subscription-protected tools require an eligible bearer token. Reachable from Claude Desktop, ChatGPT Custom Connectors, Cursor, Windsurf, and clients that support remote Streamable HTTP.

Daily Model Report Card · September 30, 2026

Olympus Bets Model Report Card — September 30, 2026

Name: Olympus Bets Model Report Card — 2026-09-30
Creator: Olympus Bets Analytics
Published: 2026-09-30
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Daily snapshot of the Olympus Bets quantitative pipeline: 17 GREEN / 1078 YELLOW / 44 RED zones across 1,139 sub-niches, 145,284 games analysed.

Generated from the same canonical data files (profitability_zones.json, regime_calibration.json, quant_thresholds.json, performance_split.json) the production engines read at simulation time.

Tier Performance (live ledger)

Tier	Resolved picks	Win rate	Units P/L	ROI
combined	2,881	51.8%	-31.4u	-1.0%

Combined resolved-pick ledger across both tiers. Premium picks apply additional profitability-zone and regime-calibration gates. Full audit trail at /track_record (CSV at /track_record.csv).

Profitability Zone Landscape

The zone engine analysed 145,284 games across 3,250 placed picks and re-tagged 1,139 sub-niches on 2026-09-30.

GREEN 17 zones — eligible for premium ranking boost
YELLOW 1078 zones — default, gated for premium
RED 44 zones — blocked from premium output

Zone identities, edge thresholds, and the Kelly-shrinkage curve are proprietary and re-fit nightly; the tallies above are the public summary of that self-learning pass.

Calibration & Thresholds

Per-league minimum-edge thresholds, the pre-Kelly probability-shrinkage curve, and regime-calibration score thresholds were re-fit against the most recent resolved-pick window (regime state last updated 2026-09-30 11:27:03). The fitted values drive premium qualification and bet sizing and are not published; the methodology behind them is documented at /methodology.

Programmatic Access

The projections, schedules, and track record behind this page are reachable via the MCP server at https://app.olympus-bets.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP, 23 read-only tools: 6 anonymous discovery, 9 on a free email-minted API key, and 8 subscription-protected). Reachable from Claude Desktop, ChatGPT Custom Connectors, Cursor, Windsurf, and clients that support remote Streamable HTTP. Setup guide: https://app.olympus-bets.com/mcp-server. Discovery: /.well-known/mcp/server-card.json.