MLB Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
817 graded MLB picks in 2026 (2026-02-20 to 2026-10-03): 421-380-16, 52.6% win rate, +16.9u (2.3% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-02-20 to 2026-10-03. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See MLB model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
421-380-16 · 52.6% · +16.9u · 2.3% ROI
Free tier
292-254-16 · 53.5% · +20.4u · 4.1% ROI
Premium tier
100-88-0 · 53.2% · -0.3u · -0.2% ROI
Premium Leans
29-38-0 · 43.3% · -3.2u · -9.5% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 341 | 181-154-6 | 54.0% | +10.4u | 2.7% |
| NRFI | 169 | 94-75-0 | 55.6% | +4.5u | 3.9% |
| ML | 113 | 52-61-0 | 46.0% | -2.4u | -3.7% |
| F5 | 77 | 41-36-0 | 53.2% | +0.4u | 0.6% |
| F5_ML | 46 | 18-18-10 | 50.0% | +0.3u | 1.0% |
| K_PROPS | 26 | 13-13-0 | 50.0% | +2.4u | 10.0% |
| BATTER_HITS | 20 | 10-10-0 | 50.0% | -1.4u | -5.9% |
| RUN_LINE | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | +2.1u | 26.5% |
| BATTER_RUNS | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | +0.5u | 7.2% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02 | 19 | 10-8-1 | 55.6% | +2.7u | 15.2% |
| 2026-03 | 118 | 57-56-5 | 50.4% | -3.2u | -2.9% |
| 2026-04 | 164 | 96-68-0 | 58.5% | +17.4u | 8.0% |
| 2026-05 | 77 | 38-39-0 | 49.4% | -0.8u | -0.9% |
| 2026-06 | 29 | 12-17-0 | 41.4% | -4.0u | -17.2% |
| 2026-07 | 159 | 84-69-6 | 54.9% | +7.6u | 6.3% |
| 2026-08 | 123 | 68-51-4 | 57.1% | +3.7u | 4.6% |
| 2026-09 | 127 | 55-72-0 | 43.3% | -7.0u | -10.3% |
| 2026-10 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | +0.4u | 80.0% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.