MLB Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
632 graded MLB picks in 2026 (2026-02-20 to 2026-08-22): 332-284-16, 53.9% win rate, +17.7u (2.9% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-02-20 to 2026-08-22. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See MLB model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
332-284-16 · 53.9% · +17.7u · 2.9% ROI
Free tier
248-210-16 · 54.1% · +19.9u · 4.5% ROI
Premium tier
84-74-0 · 53.2% · -2.2u · -1.3% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 335 | 177-152-6 | 53.8% | +5.5u | 1.5% |
| NRFI | 153 | 88-65-0 | 57.5% | +9.1u | 8.8% |
| F5_ML | 39 | 13-16-10 | 44.8% | -1.1u | -4.3% |
| F5 | 30 | 18-12-0 | 60.0% | +0.3u | 1.0% |
| BATTER_HITS | 20 | 10-10-0 | 50.0% | -1.4u | -5.9% |
| K_PROPS | 20 | 10-10-0 | 50.0% | +2.2u | 11.4% |
| ML | 13 | 5-8-0 | 38.5% | -0.3u | -2.7% |
| RUN_LINE | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | +1.7u | 22.5% |
| BATTER_RUNS | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | +0.5u | 7.2% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02 | 19 | 10-8-1 | 55.6% | +2.7u | 15.2% |
| 2026-03 | 109 | 53-51-5 | 51.0% | -2.7u | -2.6% |
| 2026-04 | 163 | 95-68-0 | 58.3% | +16.1u | 7.4% |
| 2026-05 | 73 | 37-36-0 | 50.7% | +0.9u | 1.1% |
| 2026-06 | 24 | 10-14-0 | 41.7% | -3.4u | -17.5% |
| 2026-07 | 157 | 81-70-6 | 53.6% | +3.3u | 2.7% |
| 2026-08 | 87 | 46-37-4 | 55.4% | +0.8u | 1.5% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.