NBA Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
319 graded NBA picks in 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-10-23): 152-165-2, 47.9% win rate, -43.6u (-10.3% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-23. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See NBA model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
152-165-2 · 47.9% · -43.6u · -10.3% ROI
Free tier
102-115-1 · 47.0% · -44.0u · -15.5% ROI
Premium tier
49-49-1 · 50.0% · +0.4u · 0.3% ROI
Premium Leans
1-1-0 · 50.0% · -0.1u · -7.0% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 307 | 148-157-2 | 48.5% | -38.8u | -9.3% |
| SPREAD | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | -0.2u | -5.3% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 78 | 38-39-1 | 49.4% | -7.5u | -5.8% |
| 2026-02 | 65 | 27-38-0 | 41.5% | -20.3u | -22.0% |
| 2026-03 | 79 | 41-37-1 | 52.6% | +1.7u | 2.2% |
| 2026-04 | 25 | 10-15-0 | 40.0% | -1.9u | -6.8% |
| 2026-05 | 64 | 32-32-0 | 50.0% | -15.1u | -16.7% |
| 2026-06 | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | +0.6u | 12.4% |
| 2026-10 | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | -1.1u | -37.0% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.