NFL Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
33 graded NFL picks in 2026 (2026-01-03 to 2026-10-04): 20-13-0, 60.6% win rate, -0.8u (-1.9% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-01-03 to 2026-10-04. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See NFL model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
20-13-0 · 60.6% · -0.8u · -1.9% ROI
Free tier
5-0-0 · 100.0% · +6.1u · 86.9% ROI
Premium tier
10-10-0 · 50.0% · -7.8u · -24.0% ROI
Premium Leans
5-3-0 · 62.5% · +0.9u · 22.2% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | -1.4u | -13.7% |
| OTHER | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -4.1u | -14.8% |
| ML | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | +2.5u | 83.7% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -4.1u | -14.8% |
| 2026-09 | 18 | 12-6-0 | 66.7% | +1.7u | 13.3% |
| 2026-10 | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | +1.6u | 54.7% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.