NFL Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
21 graded NFL picks in 2026 (2026-01-03 to 2026-09-20): 11-10-0, 52.4% win rate, -4.4u (-12.7% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-01-03 to 2026-09-20. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See NFL model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
11-10-0 · 52.4% · -4.4u · -12.7% ROI
Free tier
2-0-0 · 100.0% · +5.0u · 90.9% ROI
Premium tier
5-9-0 · 35.7% · -10.9u · -40.2% ROI
Premium Leans
4-1-0 · 80.0% · +1.4u · 57.2% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -4.1u | -14.8% |
| SPREAD | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | -2.6u | -58.4% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -4.1u | -14.8% |
| 2026-09 | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | -0.3u | -4.1% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.