NHL Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
150 graded NHL picks in 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-10-04): 82-67-1, 55.0% win rate, -9.3u (-4.7% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-04. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See NHL model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
82-67-1 · 55.0% · -9.3u · -4.7% ROI
Free tier
54-31-1 · 63.5% · +13.8u · 13.3% ROI
Premium tier
23-33-0 · 41.1% · -24.6u · -26.5% ROI
Premium Leans
5-3-0 · 62.5% · +1.4u · 34.2% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 137 | 75-61-1 | 55.1% | -10.1u | -5.2% |
| ML | 13 | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | +0.8u | 11.5% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 71 | 35-36-0 | 49.3% | -21.7u | -17.9% |
| 2026-02 | 16 | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | +7.9u | 38.2% |
| 2026-03 | 32 | 17-14-1 | 54.8% | +0.0u | 0.1% |
| 2026-04 | 18 | 12-6-0 | 66.7% | +3.7u | 22.2% |
| 2026-05 | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | -1.2u | -59.5% |
| 2026-09 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | +0.1u | 10.0% |
| 2026-10 | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | +1.8u | 52.6% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.