NHL Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
140 graded NHL picks in 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-05-09): 74-65-1, 53.2% win rate, -18.9u (-9.6% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-05-09. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See NHL model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
74-65-1 · 53.2% · -18.9u · -9.6% ROI
Free tier
53-30-1 · 63.9% · +13.8u · 13.4% ROI
Premium tier
21-35-0 · 37.5% · -32.6u · -35.2% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 137 | 73-63-1 | 53.7% | -18.2u | -9.4% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 71 | 35-36-0 | 49.3% | -21.7u | -17.9% |
| 2026-02 | 16 | 9-7-0 | 56.2% | -0.2u | -0.9% |
| 2026-03 | 32 | 17-14-1 | 54.8% | +0.0u | 0.1% |
| 2026-04 | 18 | 12-6-0 | 66.7% | +3.7u | 22.2% |
| 2026-05 | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -0.7u | -46.0% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.