Soccer Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
170 graded Soccer picks in 2026 (2026-01-03 to 2026-09-19): 73-93-4, 44.0% win rate, -28.1u (-15.8% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-01-03 to 2026-09-19. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See Soccer model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
73-93-4 · 44.0% · -28.1u · -15.8% ROI
Free tier
50-63-1 · 44.2% · -16.4u · -15.0% ROI
Premium tier
16-26-1 · 38.1% · -13.3u · -21.5% ROI
Premium Leans
7-4-2 · 63.6% · +1.6u · 23.8% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 123 | 53-68-2 | 43.8% | -19.8u | -15.3% |
| ORACLE | 25 | 11-14-0 | 44.0% | -6.4u | -17.3% |
| TOTAL | 20 | 8-10-2 | 44.4% | -1.9u | -17.6% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 13 | 5-7-1 | 41.7% | -6.5u | -36.3% |
| 2026-02 | 54 | 24-30-0 | 44.4% | -7.4u | -11.7% |
| 2026-03 | 49 | 21-27-1 | 43.8% | -4.8u | -12.1% |
| 2026-04 | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | -0.1u | -0.9% |
| 2026-05 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -1.0u | -100.0% |
| 2026-06 | 19 | 9-10-0 | 47.4% | -2.5u | -9.1% |
| 2026-07 | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | -3.8u | -42.6% |
| 2026-08 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | +0.9u | 94.0% |
| 2026-09 | 20 | 7-11-2 | 38.9% | -3.0u | -26.8% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.