Tennis Model Accuracy — 2026 Season Report Card
191 graded Tennis picks in 2026 (2026-04-07 to 2026-10-07): 91-99-1, 47.9% win rate, -20.0u (-10.2% ROI). Every pick timestamped before the event and graded against the final result.
Aggregated from the public, timestamped resolved-pick ledger covering 2026-04-07 to 2026-10-07. Season means the 2026 calendar year, not a league-specific season window. See Tennis model methodology and the full track record (CSV).
By tier
All picks
91-99-1 · 47.9% · -20.0u · -10.2% ROI
Free tier
58-66-1 · 46.8% · -17.6u · -15.4% ROI
Premium tier
33-30-0 · 52.4% · -0.9u · -1.1% ROI
Premium Leans
0-3-0 · 0.0% · -1.5u · -100.0% ROI
By market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER | 149 | 71-77-1 | 48.0% | -14.4u | -10.2% |
| ORACLE | 28 | 15-13-0 | 53.6% | -2.6u | -6.2% |
| GAME_HANDICAP | 14 | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | -3.0u | -22.5% |
By month
| Month | Picks | W-L-P | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 45 | 20-25-0 | 44.4% | -9.3u | -15.5% |
| 2026-06 | 22 | 12-9-1 | 57.1% | +3.1u | 12.3% |
| 2026-07 | 48 | 26-22-0 | 54.2% | -5.1u | -11.1% |
| 2026-08 | 66 | 30-36-0 | 45.5% | -7.0u | -12.1% |
| 2026-09 | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | -2.5u | -46.2% |
| 2026-10 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | +0.8u | 83.0% |
How to read this
Units are 1-unit-normalised and sized by Kelly criterion at pick time, so units and win rate move independently — a sub-50% win rate can still be profitable on longer prices, and a high win rate on heavy favourites can lose units. ROI is units won over units staked.
Individual game pages are retired 90 days after the event; this page is the permanent record of what the model actually did.