World Cup 2026 result: Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 in the final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Spain beat France 2-0 and Argentina beat England 2-1 in the semifinals; England took third place. Our Monte Carlo engine projected all 104 fixtures before kickoff and graded every one in the open — the full scorecard is below.
Model Scorecard — Every Match Projected, Every Match Graded
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Match projections published (one per fixture) | 104 of 104 |
| Correct match calls | 71 of 104 (68.3%) |
| High-confidence calls | 36 of 45 (80.0%) |
| Exact scorelines | 17 of 104 (16.3%) |
| The final | Spain to win at 47.8% (+5.4pp vs market) — HIT, 1-0 |
Every projection was frozen before kickoff, resolved against the official result, and never edited after the fact. The same engine and grading process now runs year-round across our club soccer predictions — see the full track record.
Closing Champion Odds — Final-Day Simulation (Jul 19)
The last pre-final bracket simulation, preserved as published: Spain 58.5% to lift the trophy against Argentina's 41.5%.
| Nation | Champion | Reach Final | Advance Group | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 58.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2222.1 |
| Argentina | 41.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2134.2 |
| Algeria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1851.5 |
| Australia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1869.4 |
| Austria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1825.1 |
| Belgium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1986.3 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1492.3 |
| Brazil | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2010.1 |
| Canada | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1841.3 |
| Cape Verde | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1615.0 |
| Colombia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1936.1 |
| Croatia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1882.5 |
Group Stage — Final Advancement
Group A
- South Africa100.0% advance
- Mexico100.0% advance
- Czech Republic0.0% advance
- South Korea0.0% advance
Group B
- Switzerland100.0% advance
- Bosnia and Herzegovina100.0% advance
- Canada100.0% advance
- Qatar0.0% advance
Group C
- Brazil100.0% advance
- Morocco100.0% advance
- Scotland0.0% advance
- Haiti0.0% advance
Group D
- Paraguay100.0% advance
- Australia100.0% advance
- United States100.0% advance
- Turkey0.0% advance
Group E
- Ivory Coast100.0% advance
- Ecuador100.0% advance
- Germany100.0% advance
- Curaçao0.0% advance
Group F
- Sweden100.0% advance
- Japan100.0% advance
- Netherlands100.0% advance
- Tunisia0.0% advance
Group G
- Belgium100.0% advance
- Egypt100.0% advance
- Iran0.0% advance
- New Zealand0.0% advance
Group H
- Cape Verde100.0% advance
- Spain100.0% advance
- Saudi Arabia0.0% advance
- Uruguay0.0% advance
Group I
- Norway100.0% advance
- France100.0% advance
- Senegal100.0% advance
- Iraq0.0% advance
Group J
- Austria100.0% advance
- Argentina100.0% advance
- Algeria100.0% advance
- Jordan0.0% advance
Group K
- Portugal100.0% advance
- Colombia100.0% advance
- DR Congo100.0% advance
- Uzbekistan0.0% advance
Group L
- Ghana100.0% advance
- Croatia100.0% advance
- England100.0% advance
- Panama0.0% advance
Team Pages — All 48 Nations
Every nation has a dedicated hub: full schedule, match-by-match predictions, final results, and round-by-round advancement odds. Sorted by champion probability.