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FIFA World Cup 2026

FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictions

2026-06-11 – 2026-07-19 • Canada, Mexico, United States • 48 nations • 93 fixtures

FIFA World Cup 2026 prediction: Across 10,000 Monte Carlo bracket simulations, the favorites to lift the trophy are France (21.6%), Argentina (13.2%), Spain (11.4%). The full per-nation champion, finalist, and group-advancement odds are below, with per-match projections updating as the tournament progresses.

Champion Odds — Top Contenders

NationChampionReach FinalAdvance GroupElo
France21.6%38.4%92.0%2142.7
Argentina13.2%28.5%91.1%2115.5
Spain11.4%19.7%94.2%2144.3
England6.4%14.9%88.4%2012.6
Brazil6.3%15.2%90.4%2052.3
Portugal4.6%9.2%87.5%1998.9
Mexico3.5%9.7%92.6%1981.5
Morocco3.3%8.0%88.4%2035.1
Japan2.9%2.9%86.0%2006.5
Netherlands2.4%2.4%84.4%1981.8
Colombia2.4%7.7%80.9%1926.7
Belgium2.2%5.5%84.6%1983.4

Group Power Rankings

Group A

  1. Mexico92.6% advance
  2. South Korea67.0% advance
  3. Czech Republic53.8% advance
  4. South Africa51.3% advance

Group B

  1. Canada93.1% advance
  2. Switzerland88.4% advance
  3. Qatar44.1% advance
  4. Bosnia and Herzegovina34.1% advance

Group C

  1. Brazil90.4% advance
  2. Morocco88.4% advance
  3. Scotland44.9% advance
  4. Haiti40.0% advance

Group D

  1. United States78.3% advance
  2. Australia73.8% advance
  3. Turkey70.9% advance
  4. Paraguay50.9% advance

Group E

  1. Germany85.2% advance
  2. Ivory Coast78.1% advance
  3. Ecuador76.8% advance
  4. Curaçao31.8% advance

Group F

  1. Japan86.0% advance
  2. Netherlands84.4% advance
  3. Sweden51.0% advance
  4. Tunisia46.2% advance

Group G

  1. Belgium84.6% advance
  2. Iran79.2% advance
  3. Egypt73.6% advance
  4. New Zealand34.2% advance

Group H

  1. Spain94.2% advance
  2. Uruguay80.2% advance
  3. Saudi Arabia43.2% advance
  4. Cape Verde41.0% advance

Group I

  1. France92.0% advance
  2. Senegal71.7% advance
  3. Norway68.1% advance
  4. Iraq34.0% advance

Group J

  1. Argentina91.1% advance
  2. Algeria69.9% advance
  3. Austria62.9% advance
  4. Jordan41.6% advance

Group K

  1. Portugal87.5% advance
  2. Colombia80.9% advance
  3. DR Congo52.2% advance
  4. Uzbekistan47.4% advance

Group L

  1. England88.4% advance
  2. Croatia78.2% advance
  3. Panama61.3% advance
  4. Ghana41.2% advance

Opening Fixtures — Match Predictions

2026-06-11South Africa vs MexicoGroup A 2026-06-11Czech Republic vs South KoreaGroup A 2026-06-12Bosnia and Herzegovina vs CanadaGroup B 2026-06-12Paraguay vs United StatesGroup D 2026-06-13Scotland vs HaitiGroup C 2026-06-13Turkey vs AustraliaGroup D 2026-06-13Morocco vs BrazilGroup C 2026-06-13Switzerland vs QatarGroup B 2026-06-14Ecuador vs Ivory CoastGroup E 2026-06-14Curaçao vs GermanyGroup E 2026-06-14Japan vs NetherlandsGroup F 2026-06-14Tunisia vs SwedenGroup F
How these predictions are generated: Every fixture is modeled with an Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine, then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) to produce champion, finalist, and advancement probabilities. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated. Full methodology →