FINAL: Nevada Wolf Pack 74 — Air Force 59. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Nevada Wolf Pack 67.4 - Air Force 42.2 (Nevada Wolf Pack at 80.8% win probability). The spread is -25.5 and the total is 142.5.
Nevada Wolf Pack
67.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 142.5
Air Force
42.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
Nevada Wolf PackAir Force
-25.5
Spread (Nevada Wolf Pack)
142.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Air Force L5Nevada Wolf Pack
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Air Force
284256
Nevada Wolf Pack
536782
Projected
Nevada Wolf Pack 67.4 — Air Force 42.2
Actual
Nevada Wolf Pack 74 — Air Force 59
Pick Results
Nevada Wolf Pack -25.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Spread Analysis
Nevada Wolf Pack Cover
74.5%
Air Force Cover
25.5%
ATS Edge: +11.9 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Nevada Wolf Pack 80.8%
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Spread
-25.5
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Total
142.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →