FINAL: Michigan 90 — Alabama 77. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Michigan 88.9 - Alabama 79.6 (Michigan at 70.1% win probability). The spread is -9.0 and the total is 173.0.
Michigan
88.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 173.0
Alabama
79.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MichiganAlabama
-9.0
Spread (Michigan)
173.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
AlabamaMichigan W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Alabama
678092
Michigan
7689101
Projected
Michigan 88.9 — Alabama 79.6
Actual
Michigan 90 — Alabama 77
Pick Results
Alabama +10.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Michigan Cover
46.4%
Alabama Cover
53.6%
ATS Edge: +0.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Michigan 70.1%
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Spread
-9.0
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Total
173.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →