FINAL: Utah Valley 61 — California Baptist 63. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Utah Valley 72.9 - California Baptist 65.4 (Utah Valley at 76.1% win probability). The spread is -3.5 and the total is 138.5.
Utah Valley
72.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 138.5
California Baptist
65.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
Utah ValleyCalifornia Baptist
-3.5
Spread (Utah Valley)
138.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
California Baptist
536578
Utah Valley
607386
Projected
Utah Valley 72.9 — California Baptist 65.4
Actual
Utah Valley 61 — California Baptist 63
Pick Results
Utah Valley -3.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Utah Valley Cover
69.5%
California Baptist Cover
30.5%
ATS Edge: +8.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Utah Valley 76.1%
--
Spread
-3.5
--
Total
138.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →