FINAL: UAB 78 — Charlotte 83. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected UAB 81.1 - Charlotte 75.7 (UAB at 66.6% win probability). The spread is -5.5 and the total is 145.5.
UAB
81.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 145.5
Charlotte
75.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
UABCharlotte
-5.5
Spread (UAB)
145.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Charlotte W4UAB L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Charlotte
637689
UAB
688194
Projected
UAB 81.1 — Charlotte 75.7
Actual
UAB 78 — Charlotte 83
Pick Results
Over 145.5totalWIN+1.36u
Spread Analysis
UAB Cover
50.4%
Charlotte Cover
49.6%
ATS Edge: +0.4 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
UAB 66.6%
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Spread
-5.5
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Total
145.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →