FINAL: UNC Wilmington 61 — Dayton 80. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected UNC Wilmington 66.6 - Dayton 70.1 (Dayton at 64.4% win probability). The spread is 2.5 and the total is 139.5.
UNC Wilmington
66.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 139.5
Dayton
70.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
UNC WilmingtonDayton
+2.5
Spread (UNC Wilmington)
139.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.9% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dayton
587083
UNC Wilmington
546779
Projected
UNC Wilmington 66.6 — Dayton 70.1
Actual
UNC Wilmington 61 — Dayton 80
Pick Results
Dayton +2.5spreadWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
UNC Wilmington Cover
44.6%
Dayton Cover
55.4%
ATS Edge: -1.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dayton 64.4%
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Spread
+2.5
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Total
139.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →