FINAL: VCU 70 — Dayton 62. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected VCU 81.9 - Dayton 74.7 (VCU at 57.2% win probability). The spread is -14.5 and the total is 133.5.
VCU
81.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 133.5
Dayton
74.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
VCUDayton
-14.5
Spread (VCU)
133.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DaytonVCU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dayton
627587
VCU
698294
Projected
VCU 81.9 — Dayton 74.7
Actual
VCU 70 — Dayton 62
Pick Results
Over 140.5totalLOSS-1.50u
Spread Analysis
VCU Cover
49.0%
Dayton Cover
51.0%
ATS Edge: -0.3 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
VCU 57.2%
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Spread
-14.5
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Total
133.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →