FINAL: SIU Edwardsville 71 — Eastern Illinois 77. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SIU Edwardsville 64.5 - Eastern Illinois 53.2 (SIU Edwardsville at 77.1% win probability). The spread is -5.5 and the total is 126.5.
SIU Edwardsville
64.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 126.5
Eastern Illinois
53.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SIU EdwardsvilleEastern Illinois
-5.5
Spread (SIU Edwardsville)
126.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Eastern Illinois
405366
SIU Edwardsville
516478
Projected
SIU Edwardsville 64.5 — Eastern Illinois 53.2
Actual
SIU Edwardsville 71 — Eastern Illinois 77
Pick Results
SIU Edwardsville -4.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Spread Analysis
SIU Edwardsville Cover
70.8%
Eastern Illinois Cover
29.2%
ATS Edge: +10.7 pts
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE68.3% WR (n=243)
SIU Edwardsville is a home favorite with a substantial BPR quality edge (66.4 vs 51.2 = +15.2 pts) and the model confirms their win at 77.3% probability — landing in the GREEN zone (home fav, 10-15% edge: 68.3% WR/243 bets) with a -250 ML that's expensive but justified.
Key Factors
- BPR differential: SIU Edwardsville 66.4 vs Eastern Illinois 51.2 = +15.2 pts — significant quality gap
- Model win prob: 77.3% for SIUE vs market implied 71.4% at -250 ML — +5.9% positive prob edge
- Zone: CBB|ml|home|favorite|10-15%|any = GREEN, 68.3% WR, 243 bets, z=5.71
- Model margin: SIUE wins by 15.2 vs market -5.5 = 9.7pt gap (model sees much larger win)
- Low-scoring game consensus: model 117.6 vs market 127.5 = -9.9pt gap (both below market suggests defensive game)
Risk Factors
- 9.7pt model-market spread gap suggests model may overestimate SIUE's dominance — market prices -5.5 with precision
- -250 ML price limits value even at 77.3% win probability; Kelly units will be small
- Ohio Valley Conference games have high variance; Eastern Illinois as a road team can be unpredictable
GREEN ZONEML VALUEQUALITY MISMATCHDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SIU Edwardsville 77.1%
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Spread
-5.5
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Total
126.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →