FINAL: Mercyhurst 70 — Fairleigh Dickinson 61. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Mercyhurst 72.4 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64.2 (Mercyhurst at 73.2% win probability). The spread is -4.5 and the total is 133.0.
Mercyhurst
72.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 133.0
Fairleigh Dickinson
64.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MercyhurstFairleigh Dickinson
-4.5
Spread (Mercyhurst)
133.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Fairleigh Dickinson L5Mercyhurst
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 82.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fairleigh Dickinson
516478
Mercyhurst
597286
Projected
Mercyhurst 72.4 — Fairleigh Dickinson 64.2
Actual
Mercyhurst 70 — Fairleigh Dickinson 61
Pick Results
Mercyhurst -4.5spreadWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
Mercyhurst Cover
67.5%
Fairleigh Dickinson Cover
32.5%
ATS Edge: +6.2 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mercyhurst 73.2%
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Spread
-4.5
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Total
133.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →