FINAL: Arkansas State Red 77 — Georgia Southern 80. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Arkansas State Red 78.8 - Georgia Southern 61.2 (Arkansas State Red at 80.8% win probability). The spread is -6.5 and the total is 168.5.
Arkansas State Red
78.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 168.5
Georgia Southern
61.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
Arkansas State RedGeorgia Southern
-6.5
Spread (Arkansas State Red)
168.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Georgia Southern
476175
Arkansas State Red
657993
Projected
Arkansas State Red 78.8 — Georgia Southern 61.2
Actual
Arkansas State Red 77 — Georgia Southern 80
Pick Results
Arkansas State Red -6.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Spread Analysis
Arkansas State Red Cover
74.6%
Georgia Southern Cover
25.4%
ATS Edge: +33.5 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arkansas State Red 80.8%
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Spread
-6.5
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Total
168.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →