FINAL: Troy 77 — Georgia Southern 61. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Troy 89.9 - Georgia Southern 82.6 (Troy at 71.4% win probability). The spread is -6.0 and the total is 149.5.
Troy
89.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 149.5
Georgia Southern
82.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TroyGeorgia Southern
-6.0
Spread (Troy)
149.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Georgia Southern
698396
Troy
7790103
Projected
Troy 89.9 — Georgia Southern 82.6
Actual
Troy 77 — Georgia Southern 61
Pick Results
OVER 152.5overWIN+1.36u
Spread Analysis
Troy Cover
57.8%
Georgia Southern Cover
42.2%
ATS Edge: +2.7 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Troy 71.4%
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Spread
-6.0
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Total
149.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →