FINAL: Arkansas 97 — Hawai'i 78. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Arkansas 83.1 - Hawai'i 63.3 (Arkansas at 80.0% win probability). The spread is -20.5 and the total is 172.0.
Arkansas
83.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 172.0
Hawai'i
63.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
ArkansasHawai'i
-20.5
Spread (Arkansas)
172.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Hawai'iArkansas W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hawai'i
506377
Arkansas
708396
Projected
Arkansas 83.1 — Hawai'i 63.3
Actual
Arkansas 97 — Hawai'i 78
Pick Results
Arkansas -15.5spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Arkansas Cover
63.1%
Hawai'i Cover
36.9%
ATS Edge: +3.8 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arkansas 80.0%
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Spread
-20.5
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Total
172.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →