FINAL: Auburn 88 — Illinois State 66. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Auburn 84.0 - Illinois State 78.0 (Auburn at 66.3% win probability). The spread is -8.0 and the total is 149.0.
Auburn
84.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 149.0
Illinois State
78.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
AuburnIllinois State
-8.0
Spread (Auburn)
149.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Illinois StateAuburn W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Illinois State
657891
Auburn
718497
Projected
Auburn 84.0 — Illinois State 78.0
Actual
Auburn 88 — Illinois State 66
Pick Results
Illinois State +7.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Auburn Cover
39.6%
Illinois State Cover
60.4%
ATS Edge: -3.3 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Auburn 66.3%
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Spread
-8.0
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Total
149.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →