FINAL: Wake Forest 75 — Illinois State 78. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Wake Forest 79.6 - Illinois State 75.0 (Wake Forest at 60.4% win probability). The spread is -7.0 and the total is 149.5.
Wake Forest
79.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 149.5
Illinois State
75.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
Wake ForestIllinois State
-7.0
Spread (Wake Forest)
149.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Illinois State
627588
Wake Forest
678092
Projected
Wake Forest 79.6 — Illinois State 75.0
Actual
Wake Forest 75 — Illinois State 78
Pick Results
Illinois State +7.0spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Wake Forest Cover
39.1%
Illinois State Cover
60.9%
ATS Edge: -4.1 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Wake Forest 60.4%
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Spread
-7.0
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Total
149.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →