FINAL: Houston 55 — Illinois 65. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Houston 70.0 - Illinois 64.1 (Houston at 72.9% win probability). The spread is -2.0 and the total is 140.5.
Houston
70.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 140.5
Illinois
64.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
HoustonIllinois
-2.0
Spread (Houston)
140.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 82.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Illinois
526476
Houston
587082
Projected
Houston 70.0 — Illinois 64.1
Actual
Houston 55 — Illinois 65
Pick Results
Houston -3.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Houston Cover
66.4%
Illinois Cover
33.6%
ATS Edge: +6.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Houston 72.9%
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Spread
-2.0
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Total
140.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →