FINAL: UConn 71 — Illinois 62. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected UConn 76.4 - Illinois 76.9 (Illinois at 50.0% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 139.0.
UConn
76.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 139.0
Illinois
76.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
UConnIllinois
+1.5
Spread (UConn)
139.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Illinois
657789
UConn
657688
Projected
UConn 76.4 — Illinois 76.9
Actual
UConn 71 — Illinois 62
Pick Results
OVER 139.0overWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
UConn Cover
53.4%
Illinois Cover
46.6%
ATS Edge: +1.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Illinois 50.0%
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Spread
+1.5
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Total
139.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →