FINAL: Arizona 82 — Iowa State 80. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Arizona 77.4 - Iowa State 67.2 (Arizona at 77.5% win probability). The spread is -4.0 and the total is 143.0.
Arizona
77.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 143.0
Iowa State
67.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ArizonaIowa State
-4.0
Spread (Arizona)
143.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Iowa State L4Arizona
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 92.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Iowa State
566778
Arizona
667789
Projected
Arizona 77.4 — Iowa State 67.2
Actual
Arizona 82 — Iowa State 80
Pick Results
Arizona -4.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Arizona Cover
69.5%
Iowa State Cover
30.5%
ATS Edge: +10.7 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arizona 77.5%
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Spread
-4.0
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Total
143.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →