FINAL: Illinois 71 — Iowa 59. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Illinois 79.1 - Iowa 73.9 (Illinois at 63.4% win probability). The spread is -7.0 and the total is 138.5.
Illinois
79.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 138.5
Iowa
73.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
IllinoisIowa
-7.0
Spread (Illinois)
138.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Iowa
627486
Illinois
677991
Projected
Illinois 79.1 — Iowa 73.9
Actual
Illinois 71 — Iowa 59
Pick Results
Iowa +7.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Illinois Cover
40.1%
Iowa Cover
59.9%
ATS Edge: -2.9 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Illinois 63.4%
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Spread
-7.0
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Total
138.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →