FINAL: UNC Asheville 85 — Longwood 82. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected UNC Asheville 70.6 - Longwood 68.1 (UNC Asheville at 62.1% win probability). The spread is -1.0 and the total is 140.5.
UNC Asheville
70.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 140.5
Longwood
68.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
UNC AshevilleLongwood
-1.0
Spread (UNC Asheville)
140.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Longwood L5UNC Asheville W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Longwood
556881
UNC Asheville
577184
Projected
UNC Asheville 70.6 — Longwood 68.1
Actual
UNC Asheville 85 — Longwood 82
Pick Results
UNC Asheville MLmlWIN+0.98u
Spread Analysis
UNC Asheville Cover
59.6%
Longwood Cover
40.4%
ATS Edge: +1.9 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
UNC Asheville 62.1%
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Spread
-1.0
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Total
140.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →