FINAL: Michigan State 77 — Louisville 69. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Michigan State 78.7 - Louisville 73.4 (Michigan State at 69.4% win probability). The spread is -5.0 and the total is 151.5.
Michigan State
78.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 151.5
Louisville
73.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
Michigan StateLouisville
-5.0
Spread (Michigan State)
151.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LouisvilleMichigan State W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Louisville
617385
Michigan State
677991
Projected
Michigan State 78.7 — Louisville 73.4
Actual
Michigan State 77 — Louisville 69
Pick Results
Michigan State -4.5spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Michigan State Cover
56.2%
Louisville Cover
43.8%
ATS Edge: +1.0 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Michigan State 69.4%
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Spread
-5.0
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Total
151.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →