FINAL: SMU 69 — Miami 77. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SMU 90.7 - Miami 88.0 (SMU at 62.9% win probability). The spread is -2.0 and the total is 159.5.
SMU
90.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 159.5
Miami
88.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SMUMiami
-2.0
Spread (SMU)
159.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Miami L4SMU
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Miami
7588101
SMU
7891103
Projected
SMU 90.7 — Miami 88.0
Actual
SMU 69 — Miami 77
Pick Results
SMU MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
SMU Cover
59.7%
Miami Cover
40.3%
ATS Edge: +1.7 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SMU 62.9%
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Spread
-2.0
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Total
159.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →