FINAL: Virginia 84 — Miami 62. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Virginia 82.3 - Miami 81.4 (Miami at 63.9% win probability). The spread is -4.5 and the total is 144.0.
Virginia
82.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 144.0
Miami
81.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
VirginiaMiami
-4.5
Spread (Virginia)
144.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Miami L4Virginia W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.9% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Miami
698194
Virginia
708294
Projected
Virginia 82.3 — Miami 81.4
Actual
Virginia 84 — Miami 62
Pick Results
Miami +4.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Virginia Cover
34.6%
Miami Cover
65.4%
ATS Edge: -6.0 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Miami 63.9%
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Spread
-4.5
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Total
144.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →