College Basketball

Michigan vs Arizona Prediction

April 4, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

FINAL: Arizona 73 — Michigan 91. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Arizona 74.9 - Michigan 71.2 (Arizona at 72.2% win probability). The spread is -1.0 and the total is 157.5.

Arizona
74.9
Projected Score
VS O/U 157.5
Michigan
71.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
72.2%
27.8%
ArizonaMichigan
-1.0
Spread (Arizona)
157.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Michigan W5Arizona
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.5% (4,284 games)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Michigan
607183
Arizona
647586
FINALArizona 73 — Michigan 91
Projected
Arizona 74.9 — Michigan 71.2
Actual
Arizona 73 — Michigan 91

Pick Results

Arizona +1.5spreadLOSS-1.00u

Spread Analysis

Arizona Cover
66.7%
Michigan Cover
33.3%
ATS Edge: +4.6 pts

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Arizona 72.2%
--
Spread
-1.0
--
Total
157.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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