FINAL: Wake Forest 82 — Navy 72. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Wake Forest 83.7 - Navy 74.6 (Wake Forest at 70.9% win probability). The spread is -12.0 and the total is 149.5.
Wake Forest
83.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 149.5
Navy
74.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
Wake ForestNavy
-12.0
Spread (Wake Forest)
149.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Navy L4Wake Forest
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Navy
627588
Wake Forest
718497
Projected
Wake Forest 83.7 — Navy 74.6
Actual
Wake Forest 82 — Navy 72
Pick Results
Over 148.0totalWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Wake Forest Cover
39.1%
Navy Cover
60.9%
ATS Edge: -4.8 pts
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE29.3% WR (n=26)
Navy (26-7, Patriot League champion) is a sharply superior team by record visiting a struggling Wake Forest squad (17-16, 8-12 ACC) that the market is pricing as an 11.5-point home favorite — the model predicts only a 7.2-point Wake margin, creating a 4.3-point spread tension, but the ML value is the real story: Navy getting double-digit ML value as a 26-7 team is the angle here, though Wake's home court and ACC quality create real risk.
Key Factors
- Model predicts Wake Forest by only 7.2 pts vs market spread of -11.5 = 4.3pt spread gap (model says Navy covers)
- Navy record: 26-7, 18-2 Patriot League vs Wake Forest 17-16, 8-12 ACC — Navy is the superior record team
- Model win prob for Wake: 70.9% — market implied (with -11.5 spread) suggests stronger certainty; gap signals Navy value
- Over: model predicts 158.4 total vs market 148.0 = +10.4pt gap (69.4% over prob) — significant totals edge noted but overs zone is RED (24.6% WR, z=-2.89)
- No line movement detected — no sharp money confirmation in either direction
Risk Factors
- Away underdog ML zone: 29.3% WR historically (z=-2.35) — structural system failure on this bet profile
- Wake Forest home court + ACC talent level vs Patriot League — record gap may not translate to point total gap
- Over zone: RED (CBB|over = 24.6% WR, z=-2.89) — the 10.4-pt total edge should NOT be played as an over
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTDATA INTEGRITYML VALUEQUALITY MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Wake Forest 70.9%
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Spread
-12.0
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Total
149.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →