FINAL: Michigan State 92 — North Dakota State 67. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Michigan State 82.7 - North Dakota State 62.2 (Michigan State at 79.8% win probability). The spread is -22.5 and the total is 147.0.
Michigan State
82.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 147.0
North Dakota State
62.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
Michigan StateNorth Dakota State
-22.5
Spread (Michigan State)
147.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
North Dakota StateMichigan State W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
North Dakota State
496275
Michigan State
708396
Projected
Michigan State 82.7 — North Dakota State 62.2
Actual
Michigan State 92 — North Dakota State 67
Pick Results
Michigan State -16.0spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Michigan State Cover
62.9%
North Dakota State Cover
37.1%
ATS Edge: +3.2 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Michigan State 79.8%
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Spread
-22.5
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Total
147.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →