FINAL: Idaho State 73 — Northern Arizona 65. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Idaho State 74.7 - Northern Arizona 62.3 (Idaho State at 73.2% win probability). The spread is -15.5 and the total is 135.5.
Idaho State
74.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 135.5
Northern Arizona
62.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
Idaho StateNorthern Arizona
-15.5
Spread (Idaho State)
135.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Northern Arizona L4Idaho State
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 82.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Northern Arizona
486276
Idaho State
617589
Projected
Idaho State 74.7 — Northern Arizona 62.3
Actual
Idaho State 73 — Northern Arizona 65
Pick Results
Idaho State -4.5spreadWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
Idaho State Cover
66.8%
Northern Arizona Cover
33.2%
ATS Edge: +4.7 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Idaho State 73.2%
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Spread
-15.5
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Total
135.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →