FINAL: Montana 95 — Northern Colorado 89. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Montana 78.5 - Northern Colorado 81.9 (Northern Colorado at 61.8% win probability). The spread is 4.0 and the total is 152.0.
Montana
78.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 152.0
Northern Colorado
81.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MontanaNorthern Colorado
+4.0
Spread (Montana)
152.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Northern Colorado L4Montana W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Northern Colorado
698295
Montana
657892
Projected
Montana 78.5 — Northern Colorado 81.9
Actual
Montana 95 — Northern Colorado 89
Pick Results
Over 152.5totalWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
Montana Cover
53.3%
Northern Colorado Cover
46.7%
ATS Edge: +1.4 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Northern Colorado 61.8%
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Spread
+4.0
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Total
152.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →