FINAL: St. John's 79 — Northern Iowa 53. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected St. John's 69.5 - Northern Iowa 52.2 (St. John's at 79.7% win probability). The spread is -19.5 and the total is 143.5.
St. John's
69.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 143.5
Northern Iowa
52.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
St. John'sNorthern Iowa
-19.5
Spread (St. John's)
143.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Northern Iowa
405265
St. John's
577082
Projected
St. John's 69.5 — Northern Iowa 52.2
Actual
St. John's 79 — Northern Iowa 53
Pick Results
St. John's -10.0spreadWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
St. John's Cover
67.9%
Northern Iowa Cover
32.1%
ATS Edge: +5.8 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
St. John's 79.7%
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Spread
-19.5
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Total
143.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →