FINAL: Wright State 103 — Northern Kentucky 90. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Wright State 90.1 - Northern Kentucky 89.5 (Northern Kentucky at 51.0% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 157.0.
Wright State
90.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 157.0
Northern Kentucky
89.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky
-1.5
Spread (Wright State)
157.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Northern Kentucky L4Wright State W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Northern Kentucky
7690103
Wright State
7790103
Projected
Wright State 90.1 — Northern Kentucky 89.5
Actual
Wright State 103 — Northern Kentucky 90
Pick Results
Over 158.5totalWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
Wright State Cover
52.8%
Northern Kentucky Cover
47.2%
ATS Edge: +1.4 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Northern Kentucky 51.0%
--
Spread
-1.5
--
Total
157.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →