FINAL: Purdue 81 — Northwestern 68. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Purdue 80.9 - Northwestern 56.7 (Purdue at 80.3% win probability). The spread is -23.0 and the total is 147.0.
Purdue
80.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 147.0
Northwestern
56.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PurdueNorthwestern
-23.0
Spread (Purdue)
147.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Northwestern L5Purdue
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Northwestern
445770
Purdue
688194
Projected
Purdue 80.9 — Northwestern 56.7
Actual
Purdue 81 — Northwestern 68
Pick Results
Purdue -11.5spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Purdue Cover
69.1%
Northwestern Cover
30.9%
ATS Edge: +13.8 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Purdue 80.3%
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Spread
-23.0
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Total
147.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →