College Basketball

Ohio State vs Penn State Prediction

March 4, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

FINAL: Penn State 62 — Ohio State 94. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Penn State 68.9 - Ohio State 79.0 (Ohio State at 75.7% win probability). The spread is 7.5 and the total is 152.5.

Penn State
68.9
Projected Score
VS O/U 152.5
Ohio State
79.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
24.3%
75.7%
Penn StateOhio State
+7.5
Spread (Penn State)
152.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Ohio StatePenn State L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (4,284 games)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Ohio State
657993
Penn State
556983
FINALPenn State 62 — Ohio State 94
Projected
Penn State 68.9 — Ohio State 79.0
Actual
Penn State 62 — Ohio State 94

Pick Results

Ohio State -7.5spreadWIN+0.45u

Spread Analysis

Penn State Cover
30.9%
Ohio State Cover
69.1%
ATS Edge: -4.4 pts

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Ohio State 75.7%
--
Spread
+7.5
--
Total
152.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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