College Basketball

Oklahoma State vs TCU Prediction

March 11, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

FINAL: TCU 95 — Oklahoma State 88. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TCU 78.3 - Oklahoma State 68.2 (TCU at 75.4% win probability). The spread is -7.0 and the total is 158.0.

TCU
78.3
Projected Score
VS O/U 158.0
Oklahoma State
68.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
75.4%
24.6%
TCUOklahoma State
-7.0
Spread (TCU)
158.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (4,284 games)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Oklahoma State
566881
TCU
667891
FINALTCU 95 — Oklahoma State 88
Projected
TCU 78.3 — Oklahoma State 68.2
Actual
TCU 95 — Oklahoma State 88

Pick Results

TCU -5.0spreadWIN+0.45u

Spread Analysis

TCU Cover
63.3%
Oklahoma State Cover
36.7%
ATS Edge: +5.3 pts

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
TCU 75.4%
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Spread
-7.0
--
Total
158.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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