FINAL: Yale 84 — Pennsylvania 88. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Yale 85.2 - Pennsylvania 75.3 (Yale at 75.6% win probability). The spread is -10.0 and the total is 142.5.
Yale
85.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 142.5
Pennsylvania
75.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
YalePennsylvania
-10.0
Spread (Yale)
142.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Pennsylvania W4Yale L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Pennsylvania
627588
Yale
728598
Projected
Yale 85.2 — Pennsylvania 75.3
Actual
Yale 84 — Pennsylvania 88
Pick Results
Over 142.5totalWIN+1.36u
Spread Analysis
Yale Cover
53.5%
Pennsylvania Cover
46.5%
ATS Edge: -0.1 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Yale 75.6%
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Spread
-10.0
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Total
142.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →