FINAL: San Francisco 82 — Portland 65. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected San Francisco 81.4 - Portland 75.1 (San Francisco at 68.1% win probability). The spread is -7.5 and the total is 139.5.
San Francisco
81.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 139.5
Portland
75.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
San FranciscoPortland
-7.5
Spread (San Francisco)
139.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Portland
617589
San Francisco
688195
Projected
San Francisco 81.4 — Portland 75.1
Actual
San Francisco 82 — Portland 65
Pick Results
San Francisco -4.5spreadWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
San Francisco Cover
63.3%
Portland Cover
36.7%
ATS Edge: -3.0 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
San Francisco 68.1%
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Spread
-7.5
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Total
139.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →