FINAL: Arizona 79 — Purdue 64. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Arizona 91.3 - Purdue 87.2 (Arizona at 56.6% win probability). The spread is -5.5 and the total is 153.0.
Arizona
91.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 153.0
Purdue
87.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ArizonaPurdue
-5.5
Spread (Arizona)
153.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Purdue
758799
Arizona
7991103
Projected
Arizona 91.3 — Purdue 87.2
Actual
Arizona 79 — Purdue 64
Pick Results
Purdue +6.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Arizona Cover
39.1%
Purdue Cover
60.9%
ATS Edge: -2.4 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arizona 56.6%
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Spread
-5.5
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Total
153.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →