FINAL: Michigan 72 — Purdue 80. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Michigan 79.4 - Purdue 82.0 (Purdue at 65.7% win probability). The spread is 8.5 and the total is 149.5.
Michigan
79.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 149.5
Purdue
82.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MichiganPurdue
+8.5
Spread (Michigan)
149.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PurdueMichigan W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Purdue
708294
Michigan
687991
Projected
Michigan 79.4 — Purdue 82.0
Actual
Michigan 72 — Purdue 80
Pick Results
Purdue +6.5spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Michigan Cover
31.3%
Purdue Cover
68.7%
ATS Edge: -5.2 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Purdue 65.7%
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Spread
+8.5
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Total
149.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →