FINAL: Northwestern 66 — Purdue 70. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Northwestern 58.9 - Purdue 77.2 (Purdue at 79.8% win probability). The spread is 12.5 and the total is 145.5.
Northwestern
58.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 145.5
Purdue
77.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NorthwesternPurdue
+12.5
Spread (Northwestern)
145.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PurdueNorthwestern L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Purdue
647790
Northwestern
465972
Projected
Northwestern 58.9 — Purdue 77.2
Actual
Northwestern 66 — Purdue 70
Pick Results
Purdue -11.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Spread Analysis
Northwestern Cover
26.6%
Purdue Cover
73.4%
ATS Edge: -9.7 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Purdue 79.8%
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Spread
+12.5
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Total
145.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →