FINAL: Duquesne 79 — Richmond 77. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Duquesne 85.7 - Richmond 80.9 (Duquesne at 72.0% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 158.5.
Duquesne
85.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 158.5
Richmond
80.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DuquesneRichmond
+1.5
Spread (Duquesne)
158.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Richmond L4Duquesne
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Richmond
688194
Duquesne
738699
Projected
Duquesne 85.7 — Richmond 80.9
Actual
Duquesne 79 — Richmond 77
Pick Results
Duquesne -4.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Spread Analysis
Duquesne Cover
66.4%
Richmond Cover
33.6%
ATS Edge: +4.8 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Duquesne 72.0%
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Spread
+1.5
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Total
158.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →