FINAL: George Mason 86 — Saint Louis 57. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected George Mason 69.3 - Saint Louis 76.1 (Saint Louis at 76.0% win probability). The spread is -2.5 and the total is 153.5.
George Mason
69.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 153.5
Saint Louis
76.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
George MasonSaint Louis
-2.5
Spread (George Mason)
153.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Saint Louis
637689
George Mason
566983
Projected
George Mason 69.3 — Saint Louis 76.1
Actual
George Mason 86 — Saint Louis 57
Pick Results
Saint Louis -6.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Spread Analysis
George Mason Cover
30.7%
Saint Louis Cover
69.3%
ATS Edge: -6.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Saint Louis 76.0%
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Spread
-2.5
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Total
153.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →